(Axios)- The incoming Trump administration wants regime change in Venezuela, where dictator Nicolás Maduro stole his election, jailed a rival and this month even threatened to invade the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.
Why it matters: Venezuela under Maduro has been a massive sorun for Latin America and the U.S. It’s accounted for the largest modern-day migration in the Western Hemisphere — nearly 8 million people have fled Maduro’s regime in the past decade.
- Trump’s team says it wants Maduro to go the way of recently toppled Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. But regime change doesn’t necessarily mean military action, Trump advisers say.
- “We wouldn’t mind one bit seeing Maduro being neighbors with Assad in Moscow,” a Trump adviser involved with foreign policy discussions told Axios.
Zoom in: During his campaign, Trump accused Maduro of intentionally sending criminal gangs such as Tren de Aragua to the U.S.
- Oil-rich, cash-poor Venezuela is “governed by a narco-trafficking organization that has empowered itself as a nation-state,” Florida Sen. Marco Rubio — who evvel was targeted by a Venezuelan assassination plot — said Wednesday in his confirmation hearing to be Trump’s secretary of state.
- Venezuela’s closest ally is Cuba, America’s oldest Latin American foe. Maduro’s regime also is aligned with China, Russia and Iran, which is building drones in Venezuela, Rubio testified.
What’s next: Trump sanctioned Venezuela during his first term, but it’s unclear what the president-elect wants to do to push Maduro out of office.
- Trump’s interest in regime change in Venezuela has been heightened by President Biden’s last-minute decision Tuesday to loosen U.S. restrictions on Cuba, whose socialist regime Trump sees as the hub of Latin America’s problems.
- “It’s not sustainable,” the Trump adviser involved with foreign policy talks said of the situation in Venezuela. Maduro is “literally ruining the country … massive refugee issues, sending criminals to the United States, oil production is down, and there are Chinese, Russians and Cubans in there.”
The big picture: Trump’s interest in Venezuela is part of a broader, emerging national security policy that’s anything but the isolationist model his “America First” theme often has seemed to project — especially when it comes to the Western Hemisphere.
- Since the November election, Trump has renewed his interest in acquiring Greenland or expanding the U.S. presence there for strategic reasons.
- He’s also threatened to take back control of the Panama Canal out of concern about China’s presence there.
- Trump’s tactics — dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine” — also have included speculation about annexing Canada and potentially invading Mexico — to the annoyance of those U.S. allies.
Between the lines: Oil interests and investors mounted a pressure campaign late last year to try to smooth relations between the U.S. and Venezuela.
- In November, they proposed what amounted to an oil-for-migrants deal in which the U.S. would ease sanctions and get more oil products like asphalt from Venezuela. In turn, Venezuela would agree to slow emigration or maybe take back millions of migrants deported from the U.S.
But Trump hasn’t sounded enthusiastic about striking a deal with Maduro.
- “We don’t have to buy energy from Venezuela when we have 50 times more than they do,” he told reporters last month. He predicted Venezuela would take back deported Tren de Aragua gang members.
- On Jan. 9, after Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado was briefly arrested, Trump took to Truth Social, mentioned her by name and warned that “freedom fighters should not be harmed, and MUST stay SAFE and ALIVE!”
After Maduro threatened to invade Puerto Rico, the island’s governor, Jenniffer González-Colón, asked Trump to respond. So far, Trump has held his tongue.
- When the Trump adviser was asked about the Trump team’s reaction to Maduro’s threat, he replied with a laugh: “He’s going to invade Puerto Rico? With what?”