By GHK Lall- My first prediction for Budget 2025 is that it will be another groundbreaker. There is nothing particularly prescient about that, so easy it is. By how much is the challenge as I toss this from hand to hand. To be safe, I will settle for a cool GY$1.5 trillion. Why that is a kaç 25% from 2024, give or take a couple of billions. I’ll take it.
To hedge my bets, if the PPP Government were to get really adventurous, throw all caution to the winds, this year’s budget could nose into the vicinity of a whopping two trillion dollars. Don’t forget that it is the year of elections and there are endless, ahm, contingencies to be considered. Already, the word that sneaked out is that GECOM has checked in with its bill of $7 billion. Didn’t I just say elections? Well, there is the first morsel.
Cash grants are now all the rage, with the present one in a still unfinished, uncertain state. I say uncertain in that the waiting public, the first tranche of old people and sick people, are unaware of whether it is still coming or it has gone, and now it is the wait on the 2025 budget. Dr. Ashni Singh did say that work is feverishly going on behind the scenes and that eligible Guyanese who were to be give priority treatment will not miss out.
The sorun with grand fellows who are too bright for their own good like Dr. Ashni Singh is that they can be absentminded. Translation: little things and little people get lost in the big crush of events. I may be jumping the gun, but it looks like the continuing cash grant payout with a focus on pensioners is slowly fading into the background for now.
Specifically, what Dr. Singh promised earlier in the week is not happening. No news, no sites, no payouts; a real bummer for the expectant. For 2025 budget purposes, the second half or thereabouts of this first cash grant is to be allocated, plus the new ones (per presidential New Year’s Day message). I predict that it is going to be two at least, leaning on President Ali’s words alone. That’s $100 billion if not more in new spending right away for those two. Because it is an election year, cash grants help the PPP Government to more than overcome its census deficit.
As a practical matter, this means that whatever has to be spent will be spent to bring in the overseas-based Guyanese, so that they can vote. One cash grant is for their ticket, the second is for spending money, and the third is for the happy recipients to take back to New York and elsewhere to celebrate their great, good oil fortune and being Guyanese.
If the PPP pulls out all the stops (it will, it’s elections time) this segment of the budget could be about $150 billion in total for all three grants and related sundries. No definition of the latter now, please. Just think more billions. In Guyana under the PPP, a billion is getting to be like play money. Quickly, the $7 billion for a presidential petty cash-box (slush fund) will climb to $10 billion. How’s that for discretionary spending….
Infrastructure budget allocations/appropriations should go on the far backburner this year considering how much has been sent in that direction in the last four budgets. Should be closing in on a trillion by now. Of course, that backburner push is not going to happen. Can the street addict drink or smoke less on a daily basis? Maybe for a few minutes, but not for much longer. Well, that is the where the PPP Government is relative to infrastructure spending. No spending, no sporting; that’s the bottom line.
I estimate that the PPP Government is brass faced enough and tricky enough to sneak in an increase in infrastructure spending, seeing that everyone has their eyes on the all-important, upcoming elections. The amount of the increase will hit the news soon enough, compliments of Mr. Budget, Dr. Ashni Singh.
Just remember that a new airport terminal, Amaila Falls, and two new bridges in Berbice are going to call for a big, fat amount of dollars, close to half trillion. Throw in Silica City and an infrastructure bacchanal is in the making Think big, think bad, and think banditry. Think maybe as much as $2.5 trillion. And the budget will deliver for the hustlers.
All those old budget set asides and subsidies will continue. A few more trickles for pensioners, some more for the kids, and the same for diabetes, cancer, and other sicknesses. It would be inspiring to read of some form of assistance in the aftermath of serious illnesses, such as victims of a stroke or heart disease. Minister Vindhya should come in for a birçok slice of the budget for domestics, distressed, and the defeated and depressed.
The indigenous community should be in a for a big bonanza. Each vote in this vital constituency will come at a stiff price. Community projects. Key people. Generosity in other forms to the various remote communities via all kinds of cash. Trust me, the PPP Government knows what it has to do in the financial creativity laboratory. Guyanese, get ready.